Will New Launch Condos See a Drop in Prices Soon?
TLDR The real estate market in Singapore is experiencing a trend of lackluster bids for prime properties in various locations....
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TLDR
Determining the best time to sell a newly launched condo involves weighing the benefits of selling before or after the project’s completion. Selling early can lead to quicker profits and less competition, while waiting until completion might attract more buyers and higher prices, albeit with potential risks like construction issues. Data from various condo sales since 2018 indicates that selling after the Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) often yields slightly better returns, with a 1.4% improvement on average. However, the timing difference is marginal, and decisions should consider market conditions, project specifics, and personal financial strategies. Understanding the Sellers Stamp Duty (SSD) and market trends is crucial for maximizing investment returns in Singapore’s property market.
There has been significant interest in figuring out the best time to sell your newly launched condo, especially as more units from recent developments are approaching completion.
Should you sell before the condo is finished? Selling early allows for quicker access to profits and opens up opportunities for other potential investments. Furthermore, selling sooner can mean facing less competition, particularly if your unit is part of a large-scale development.
Conversely, there are benefits to waiting until the project is completed. You might see an uptick in demand from buyers eager to move in, and if the condo exceeds expectations, it could command a higher price. However, there’s a risk that any construction quality issues could surface, which might negatively affect your selling price.
So, does selling early genuinely offer greater profitability, and how does the timing of your sale influence your returns? We examined data from various condo sales to uncover the answers:
Projects that we used for comparison
We compared private, non-landed projects launched since 2018. We also looked at new resale and new sub-sale transactions for comparison.
| Project | New Sale to Resale (Vol) | New Sale to Sub Sale (Vol) | Total Volume |
| AMBER 45 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| AVENUE SOUTH RESIDENCE | 37 | 2 | 39 |
| BUKIT 828 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| DAINTREE RESIDENCE | 8 | 16 | 24 |
| FOURTH AVENUE RESIDENCES | 2 | 13 | 15 |
| JADESCAPE | 45 | 80 | 125 |
| JUI RESIDENCES | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| KOPAR AT NEWTON | 1 | 15 | 16 |
| MARGARET VILLE | 31 | 4 | 35 |
| MAYFAIR GARDENS | 13 | 14 | 27 |
| MIDWOOD | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| NYON | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| OLLOI | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| PARC ESTA | 56 | 169 | 225 |
| PARK COLONIAL | 52 | 56 | 108 |
| REZI 24 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| STIRLING RESIDENCES | 107 | 84 | 191 |
| THE ANTARES | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| THE GARDEN RESIDENCES | 69 | 4 | 73 |
| THE JOVELL | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| THE TAPESTRY | 97 | 19 | 116 |
| THE VERANDAH RESIDENCES | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| TREASURE AT TAMPINES | 61 | 275 | 336 |
| TWIN VEW | 43 | 45 | 88 |
| VERDALE | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| WHISTLER GRAND | 48 | 57 | 105 |
| Total Transactions | 674 | 928 | 1602 |
Avenue South Residence transactions were initially recorded as Sub Sale. We changed them to “Resale” for analysis because it was believed that the residence was ready for move-in earlier. We used March 2023 as the date for considering these transactions as Resale instead of Sub Sale.
A look at overall returns
| Project | New Sale to Resale | New Sale to Sub Sale | Grand Total | Which is better? | Difference |
| AMBER 45 | +15.1% | +6.1% | +14.3% | Sell After TOP | +9.0% |
| AVENUE SOUTH RESIDENCE | +14.7% | +13.7% | +14.6% | Sell After TOP | +0.9% |
| BUKIT 828 | +8.9% | -4.6% | +2.1% | Sell After TOP | +13.6% |
| DAINTREE RESIDENCE | +21.6% | +22.2% | +22.0% | Sell Before TOP | -0.5% |
| FOURTH AVENUE RESIDENCES | +17.8% | +8.4% | +9.7% | Sell After TOP | +9.4% |
| JADESCAPE | +25.8% | +22.0% | +23.4% | Sell After TOP | +3.8% |
| JUI RESIDENCES | +9.3% | +11.5% | +9.8% | Sell Before TOP | -2.2% |
| KOPAR AT NEWTON | +11.6% | +12.7% | +12.6% | Sell Before TOP | -1.1% |
| MARGARET VILLE | +17.1% | +11.1% | +16.4% | Sell After TOP | +6.0% |
| MAYFAIR GARDENS | +10.3% | +9.8% | +10.0% | Sell After TOP | +0.5% |
| MIDWOOD | +18.4% | +20.9% | +19.7% | Sell Before TOP | -2.5% |
| NYON | +16.3% | +13.2% | +15.5% | Sell After TOP | +3.1% |
| OLLOI | +24.0% | +17.5% | +20.7% | Sell After TOP | +6.5% |
| PARC ESTA | +29.1% | +22.7% | +24.3% | Sell After TOP | +6.4% |
| PARK COLONIAL | +20.8% | +15.7% | +18.1% | Sell After TOP | +5.1% |
| REZI 24 | +4.3% | +7.3% | +6.7% | Sell Before TOP | -2.9% |
| STIRLING RESIDENCES | +24.2% | +20.1% | +22.4% | Sell After TOP | +4.1% |
| THE ANTARES | +19.2% | +12.9% | +16.1% | Sell After TOP | +6.3% |
| THE GARDEN RESIDENCES | +13.5% | +8.2% | +13.2% | Sell After TOP | +5.3% |
| THE JOVELL | +22.7% | +16.9% | +18.5% | Sell After TOP | +5.9% |
| THE TAPESTRY | +16.6% | +11.6% | +15.8% | Sell After TOP | +5.0% |
| THE VERANDAH RESIDENCES | +13.3% | +10.2% | +11.1% | Sell After TOP | +3.1% |
| TREASURE AT TAMPINES | +23.5% | +21.8% | +22.1% | Sell After TOP | +1.7% |
| TWIN VEW | +22.6% | +17.0% | +19.8% | Sell After TOP | +5.6% |
| VERDALE | +12.8% | +13.9% | +13.3% | Sell Before TOP | -1.1% |
| WHISTLER GRAND | +30.7% | +24.6% | +27.4% | Sell After TOP | +6.1% |
| Average | +21.3% | +19.9% | +20.5% | Sell After TOP |
New resale transactions were slightly better, suggesting it’s often wiser to sell after TOP. However, the difference isn’t significant. In six projects where selling before TOP was advantageous, three only had one new resale transaction, and Jui Residences had two, making it tough to reach solid conclusions. Midwood stands out, as selling after TOP increased value by 2.5 percent.
We need to note that prices increased a lot after Covid
In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic, the housing shortage led to a significant increase in home prices. As a result, we would anticipate that new units compared to resale properties would exhibit stronger performance, as they likely have appreciated due to extended time in the market.
Below are the holding periods for the different transactions:
| Project | New Sale to Resale | New Sale to Sub Sale | Grand Total |
| AMBER 45 | 4.4 Years | 3.2 Years | 4.3 Years |
| AVENUE SOUTH RESIDENCE | 4.0 Years | 3.1 Years | 3.9 Years |
| BUKIT 828 | 4.0 Years | 1.6 Years | 2.8 Years |
| DAINTREE RESIDENCE | 3.7 Years | 3.3 Years | 3.4 Years |
| FOURTH AVENUE RESIDENCES | 3.6 Years | 3.6 Years | 3.6 Years |
| JADESCAPE | 4.1 Years | 3.7 Years | 3.8 Years |
| JUI RESIDENCES | 4.6 Years | 3.4 Years | 4.3 Years |
| KOPAR AT NEWTON | 4.0 Years | 3.6 Years | 3.6 Years |
| MARGARET VILLE | 4.4 Years | 3.5 Years | 4.3 Years |
| MAYFAIR GARDENS | 4.6 Years | 4.1 Years | 4.3 Years |
| MIDWOOD | 3.2 Years | 3.1 Years | 3.1 Years |
| NYON | 3.9 Years | 3.5 Years | 3.8 Years |
| OLLOI | 3.9 Years | 2.2 Years | 3.1 Years |
| PARC ESTA | 4.3 Years | 3.7 Years | 3.8 Years |
| PARK COLONIAL | 4.9 Years | 3.7 Years | 4.3 Years |
| REZI 24 | 3.5 Years | 4.0 Years | 3.9 Years |
| STIRLING RESIDENCES | 4.3 Years | 3.6 Years | 4.0 Years |
| THE ANTARES | 3.7 Years | 3.9 Years | 3.8 Years |
| THE GARDEN RESIDENCES | 4.1 Years | 3.4 Years | 4.0 Years |
| THE JOVELL | 4.2 Years | 3.5 Years | 3.7 Years |
| THE TAPESTRY | 4.6 Years | 3.3 Years | 4.4 Years |
| THE VERANDAH RESIDENCES | 5.7 Years | 4.7 Years | 5.0 Years |
| TREASURE AT TAMPINES | 3.8 Years | 3.7 Years | 3.7 Years |
| TWIN VEW | 4.9 Years | 3.4 Years | 4.2 Years |
| VERDALE | 3.6 Years | 3.4 Years | 3.5 Years |
| WHISTLER GRAND | 4.1 Years | 3.5 Years | 3.8 Years |
| Average | 4.3 Years | 3.7 Years | 3.9 Years |
For Midwood, the average time between buying and selling is similar for both sub sales and resales, so the holding period isn’t significant for this condo.
Generally, if you wait until after the TOP to sell, the results improve by about 1.4 per cent, which is due to an eight-month difference in the holding period.
In general, the findings indicate that the timing of this brief scale does not significantly impact the results
It’s wise to follow a basic strategy for property buying: purchase when you can hold onto the investment and weather market downturns.
The Sellers Stamp Duty (SSD) imposes a 12% tax on the sale price if a unit is sold within the first year, dropping to 8% and then 4% in following years. This is why many sub sales happen in the fourth year, after the SSD period.
Decisions often depend on the specific project. For a luxury condo with fewer competitors and a promising outlook, waiting might be advantageous as buyers may pay more for something they like.
In contrast, for mass-market launches, timing can be crucial. If you bought early and others bought later, selling before more listings appear could be wise, even if you risk missing a higher price later.
Finally, private property prices are rising slowly and struggling to exceed $2,200 per square foot, affecting sub sale transactions. Buyers should be ready to hold their properties longer than expected, possibly needing to sell well after the official completion date.
Should You Buy, Sell or Wait?
If you’re reading this, you must be trying to figure out the best course of action right now: is it the right time to buy or sell?
It’s difficult to give an exact answer since everyone’s situation is unique and what works for one person may not necessarily work for you.
I can bring you a wealth of on-the-ground experience and a data-driven approach to provide clarity and direction. From beginners to experienced investors, our top-down, objective approach will help you on your real estate journey.
I can help you by:
- Offering Strategic Real Estate Advice – I can help create a comprehensive plan to guide you through your property journey.
- Connecting Your Home with the Perfect Buyers – Through stunning visuals, an effective communication strategy, and an in-depth knowledge of the market, we’ll ensure your home is presented in the best possible way to fulfill your goals.
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