Your search results

The Influence of Soaring Land Costs on Singapore’s Real Estate Market: A Look at Land Price Trends Since 1992

Posted by Jayson Ang on October 7, 2024

| 0

TLDR

When it comes to understanding the fluctuations in land prices in Singapore, historical patterns reveal significant spikes and dips due to various economic crises and market influences. The year 2017 marked a pivotal surge in land prices, surpassing $1,000 per square foot for the first time. Factors such as government policies, en-bloc sales, and global economic conditions play a crucial role in shaping property prices. Looking ahead, the en-bloc market’s trajectory remains uncertain, impacting the pricing of new launches and resale properties. Developers often maintain high new launch prices, influenced not only by land costs but also by established market rates and buyer demand. Ultimately, the decision to buy or sell property depends on individual circumstances, market trends, and strategic real estate advice tailored to meet specific goals.

A significant factor that developers often point out for the high cost of newly launched properties pertains to the steep land prices. For a more in-depth understanding, feel free to check out our detailed article here. But we’ve noticed a recurrent query from many individuals – it seems like this ‘land price’ explanation is repeated annually. Indeed, it’s tough to recall a time when developers weren’t grumbling about escalating land prices. Hence, we thought it would be interesting to delve into the historical pattern of rising land prices.

Land Price Trends in Singapore: A Closer Look

Here’s a snapshot of average land prices from ’92 onwards. There are three significant bumps to note:

First up, there’s a hefty increase around ’96. This happened after a period of substantial price growth right until mid-’97. Essentially, it was the calm before the storm that was the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). The market was flying high and then bam, everything crashed. The descent kicked off in mid-’97 and resulted in one of the nastiest property slumps ever, with home prices dipping by about 45% from the ’96 high.

Next, we’ve got a spike around 2007, a byproduct of a massive property surge. But alas, the very next year, the Global Financial Crisis hit and prices took a nosedive. The silver lining? Recovery was speedy, largely due to the US Federal Reserve’s zero-interest rate policy. This had such an intense effect that folks with SOR loan packages (which aren’t in use today) found themselves with negative home loan interest rates.

Finally, there’s a pronounced rise around 2017, supposedly triggered by the arrival of cash-rich Chinese developers. This sparked a mad rush for en-bloc sales, with fierce bidding that pushed land prices through the roof and squeezed margins. While these Chinese developers have since become part of the scene, their influence on land prices hasn’t really been reversed.

The year 2017 was pivotal in the real estate market, marking a significant surge in land prices. For the first time, the average price tag tipped over $1,000 per square foot, a hefty jump of approximately 34.5% from the previous year’s rate of $784 per square foot.

Following 2017, land value consistently hovered above the $1,000 mark, with the sole exception being the tumultuous period of the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. However, this dip was short-lived as prices rebounded beyond $1,000 the very next year.

The market was on its toes, anticipating a potential price hike by 2022 when the final batch of 2017 en-bloc redevelopments were set to wrap up. However, contrary to expectations, the price surge didn’t materialize. As we discussed in a previous article, multiple factors contributed to this unexpected turn of events.

The government released more Government Land Sale (GLS) sites, the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) increased, and Land Betterment Charges (LBC) came into play. These factors made developers think twice before placing aggressive bids, leading to a moderate dip in prices to $1,061 per square foot last year.

If the recent bid for the Marina Gardens white site is any indicator, we can expect property prices to remain relatively stable, particularly in areas like the Core Central Region (CCR) which are often affected by cooling measures.

Land Prices Dip Slightly in Recent Times: A Closer Look

So, you’re wondering why new launch prices never seem to take a dip?

Let’s rewind to last year when it became the gold standard for a new launch to be priced around $2,100+ per square foot. So, hypothetically, even if a developer manages to snag land on the cheap, they’d likely stick to this price bracket. After all, if homebuyers are happily paying this rate and the market doesn’t bat an eyelid, why wouldn’t developers seize the opportunity to pad out their slim profit margins?

In a recent chat I had with a property agent, she highlighted that a consortium securing the Marina Gardens white site with a lower bid doesn’t necessarily mean the resulting project will be a bargain compared to neighboring condos. New launches tend to be pricier than existing resale projects, and let’s not forget that the existing projects in this area, like Marina One or Marina Bay Residences, are anything but a steal.

So yes, land prices can influence how much a developer decides to charge, but there are other sticky factors at play. Think established market rates which can stubbornly keep prices high, irrespective of whether the land was a bargain that year.

Factor to Consider: En-Bloc Sales and the Price of Your Next Home

Looking ahead, the trajectory of the en-bloc market is as unpredictable as a roll of the dice. We’re all left wondering how it’s going to unfold in the next few years. On one side of the coin, those selling en-bloc properties might be eyeing loftier price tags, given the hefty costs of securing replacement homes.

Let’s paint a picture here – say you snagged a resale house in January 2014, and it cost you roughly $1,204 per square foot. If this home steps into the en-bloc scene and you’re on the hunt for a new residence, a current resale unit could set you back around $1,595 per square foot, while a new launch could hit the $2,315 mark per square foot.

That’s no small change, right? So a developer looking to buy has to dig deep into their pockets to convince you to give your nod to the collective sale, which could inadvertently inflate land prices again.

However, the plot could twist – the en-bloc sellers might be the first to blink, lowering their prices as developers proceed with caution. At a glance, it might not seem like most folks are in a rush to sell. After all, many property owners in Singapore have a decent financial cushion and can afford to bide their time until they see the price they want.

Still, we’re already catching glimpses of owners having to reduce their price expectations as developers keep their wallets shut. An obvious instance is Pine Grove, where the en-bloc sale committee is working towards a lower asking price of $1.78 billion, down from the initial $1.95 billion.

Summing up, it’s unlikely we’ll witness another en-bloc buying frenzy like 2017, considering the present economic climate, interest rates, and cooling measures. While this suggests that land prices may stay steady, it doesn’t necessarily mean new launch prices will follow suit.

Should You Buy, Sell or Wait?

If you’re reading this, you must be trying to figure out the best course of action right now: is it the right time to buy or sell?

It’s difficult to give an exact answer since everyone’s situation is unique and what works for one person may not necessarily work for you.

I can bring you a wealth of on-the-ground experience and a data-driven approach to provide clarity and direction. From beginners to experienced investors, our top-down, objective approach will help you on your real estate journey.

I can help you by:

Offering Strategic Real Estate Advice – I can help create a comprehensive plan to guide you through your property journey.
Connecting Your Home with the Perfect Buyers – Through stunning visuals, an effective communication strategy, and an in-depth knowledge of the market, we’ll ensure your home is presented in the best possible way to fulfill your goals.

You May Also Like …

All Blog Posts Buying Tips

Will Your HDB Flat Provide For Your Retirement?

Jayson Ang – July 11, 2023 –

TLDR Singapore's property market presents challenges with high prices, particularly in private housing, while public housing remains relatively more affordable....

All Buying Tips Opinion

Here Are 6 Interesting Facts About The Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) That Not Many People Know About In Singapore

Jayson Ang – May 1, 2024 –

TLDR When it comes to understanding the Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) set by the Housing Development Board (HDB) in Singapore,...

All Buying Tips Opinion

The Sneaky Role of Property Appraisals in Shaping Singapore’s Home Prices

Jayson Ang – January 20, 2024 –

TLDR When it comes to the real estate market in Singapore, understanding property valuations and the impact on mortgage loans...

All Reports

Finding Your Dream Home In The Near Future. Exciting Upcoming Property Launches In The First Half Of 2024

Jayson Ang – December 25, 2023 –

TLDR The real estate sector in 2023 saw significant policy shifts affecting both private and public housing, with various changes...

All Opinion Selling Tips

When will En-Bloc set to Become Reality Beyond 2023?

Jayson Ang – November 24, 2023 –

TLDR The real estate market is experiencing a lull in en-bloc activities due to various factors. Higher Additional Buyer’s Stamp...

Mandarin Top 5

Top 5 Reasons : Why Investing In Singapore’s Property Market Is Recession-Resistant

Jayson Ang – August 15, 2024 –

Singapore's property market has long been considered a safe haven for investors, even during times of economic uncertainty. The city-state's...

Mandarin Top 5

Top 5 Factors to Look for in a Property Developer

Jayson Ang – March 13, 2024 –

With a highly competitive property market, it's crucial to choose a property developer that you can trust to deliver quality...

Mandarin Top 5

5 Key Factors that Affect Singapore’s Property Prices

Jayson Ang – August 29, 2024 –

Singapore, a thriving city-state known for its impressive skyline and robust economy, has one of the most dynamic and competitive...

Mandarin Top 5

Is Singapore’s Property Market on the Verge of a Crash? Understanding the 5 Factors at Play

Jayson Ang – March 31, 2024 –

The Singapore property market has long been an attractive option for both local and international investors. However, as with any...

All Buying Tips Opinion

I Regret Buying A DBSS: 5 Homeowners Share Their Biggest Regrets

Jayson Ang – January 16, 2024 –

TLDR Singapore's DBSS scheme faced challenges such as design flaws, developer responsiveness issues, and restrictions on selling. Residents reported various...

Mandarin Top 5

Top 5 Tips : Finding the Right Property: Location, Size, and Price in Singapore Real Estate

Jayson Ang – November 5, 2024 –

Singapore, known for its diverse culture, strong economy, and excellent infrastructure, is a popular destination for real estate investments. The...

All Blog Posts Buying Tips

What Will Happen When Your 99-Year Housing Lease Expires?

Jayson Ang – February 11, 2023 –

TLDR We delve into the challenges faced by Singaporeans with expiring 99-year housing leases. It explores the types of leases...

All Opinion

Why En Blocs Often Fail to Succeed

Jayson Ang – April 26, 2024 –

TLDR In this blog post, the focus is on the challenges and complexities of en-bloc transactions in Singapore's property market....

Mandarin Top 5

5 Things to Know About Singapore’s Public Housing System

Jayson Ang – June 16, 2023 –

5 Things to Know About Singapore's Public Housing System With over 80% of Singaporeans living in public housing, it's important...

All Blog Posts Buying Tips

5 Must-Know Questions Before Investing in Real Estate

Jayson Ang – June 15, 2023 –

TLDR When considering whether to buy a new development or a resale property, it can be challenging. In the blog...

Mandarin Top 5

5 Impacts Of The Singapore Government’s Cooling Measures On Property Investing

Jayson Ang – May 30, 2024 –

The Singapore government has implemented several cooling measures over the years to regulate the property market and prevent it from...

All Blog Posts Buying Tips

Learn How To Negotiate For The Best Price When Purchasing a Resale HDB Flat

Jayson Ang – February 17, 2023 –

Navigating the complexities of purchasing a resale HDB flat requires honing negotiation skills and market awareness. Understanding property valuations, seller...

All Blog Posts

Singapore Property Swapper

Jayson Ang – December 7, 2022 –

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1NTnjxDPy4 Jayson Ang, also known as the Singapore Property Swapper, is a certified Propnex agent and top 1% producer who...