The Scarcity of Resale Condos in Singapore (2025): Understanding the Supply Shortage
TLDR Resale condos in Singapore are facing a sharp supply crunch in 2025, driven by fewer new launches, developers holding...
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TLDR
The URA Draft Master Plan 2025 outlines the creation of 80,000 new homes across more than 10 estates over 10-15 years, addressing Singapore’s high property prices. Key redevelopment areas include Newton/Monk’s Hill/Scotts Road with around 5,000 private homes featuring mixed-use spaces and greenery; Paterson/Orchard MRT with about 1,000 homes in a vertical village combining residences and retail; Dover–Medway/One-North expected to offer approximately 6,000 units in a growing tech hub; Mediapolis with around 5,000 private homes near the Rail Corridor targeting expatriates; and Kranji (former Turf Club), which will have about 14,000 homes focusing on affordable, sustainable suburban living. Longer-term plans cover areas like Sembawang Shipyard, Paya Lebar Air Base, Pearl’s Hill, Marina South, and prestigious estates such as Bukit Timah Turf City. The plan aims to balance urban growth with greenery, connectivity, and live-work-play environments. Buyers should consider their unique situations and seek expert advice to decide whether to buy, sell, or wait amid changing market conditions.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) Draft Master Plan 2025 unveils an ambitious strategy to introduce at least 80,000 new homes across more than 10 neighborhoods over the next 10 to 15 years. This significant increase in housing supply is particularly relevant in the current climate of high property prices. While the full impact may take time to materialize, the practical implications for upcoming sites are already generating considerable interest.
The Five Main Headliners (as of June 2025):
- Newton/Monk’s Hill/Scotts Road Cluster: This area is set to become a major draw, yielding approximately 5,000 new private homes within a “mixed-use” precinct. Newton, currently more business-oriented, will see the development of a “village square” near Newton MRT station (NSL, DTL). A linear park along Monk’s Hill Road will link Newton MRT directly to Emerald Hill, enhancing car-light connectivity in this dense urban zone. This initiative aims to re-position Newton into a true residential enclave with integrated green spaces, ground-level retail, and improved walkability. This scale of redevelopment in a mature Core Central Region (CCR) neighborhood, coupled with enhanced greenery and vibrancy, is rare and expected to maintain premium pricing, reflecting both centrality and scarcity.
- Paterson/Orchard MRT: This area will contribute around 1,000 new private homes, with a significant mixed-use development planned atop Orchard MRT station (NSL, TEL). The project is envisioned as a “vertical village” integrating residences, retail, F&B, and office space on the reactivated former Institute of Education site. This development is part of ongoing efforts to balance Orchard Road, making it more of a live-work-play environment as retail faces competition from e-commerce. As Singapore’s most famous district, ultra-premium pricing is expected. The success of this plot, especially in the context of renewed CCR focus in 2H 2025, may hinge on potential revisions to the foreigner ABSD.
- Dover–Medway/One-North: This location is poised to be a “sleeper hit,” providing approximately 6,000 new homes, including both public (HDB) and private units. Situated between Kent Ridge and One-North MRT (CCL), this area is already a growing tech and media hub. The gradual clearance of SIT and UWC campuses for relocation will introduce more students and faculty, potentially increasing demand for rental properties. For homeowners seeking proximity to Holland V without the District 10 price tag, this area, alongside Mediapolis, is worth observing.
- Mediapolis (Greater One-North Area): As another expansion within the One-North area, Mediapolis focuses on the vicinity of Wessex Estate and the Rail Corridor. Wessex Estate’s unique cluster of colonial-era black-and-white bungalows, combined with the green spine of the Rail Corridor, offers a distinctive, private, and almost bohemian ambiance. Around 5,000 new private homes are slated for this enclave. Its close proximity to key institutions and employers (media startups, biomedical firms, research campuses) makes it attractive for investors targeting expatriates and professionals, though it’s currently less on the radar for owner-occupiers.
- Kranji (Former Turf Club): While the redevelopment of the former Turf Club has been known, new details confirm it will be the largest single housing infusion from this Draft Plan, with approximately 14,000 new homes, including HDB units. This “riverine estate” will be part of the Kranji Nature Corridor, a stretch of interconnected greenery and riverfront. This area is currently remote, making it suitable for buyers focused on long-term transformation and affordability. URA’s artistic impressions depict low- to mid-rise housing integrated with water features, park connectors, and extensive greenery, potentially establishing Kranji as a model for sustainable suburban living, though convenience will not be its immediate draw.
The Other Five Areas (Longer-Term Focus):
These five areas are massive in scale but have longer timelines, lack detailed plans currently, or may not have the same near-term impact for homeowners within a 5-10 year horizon.
- Sembawang Shipyard: Expected to cease operations in 2028, this area will be transformed into a mixed-use waterfront district with new housing, community spaces, and potentially a lifestyle precinct retaining its maritime heritage. Expected occupancy is likely well into the 2030s, appealing to those valuing coastal views and heritage charm.
- Paya Lebar Air Base (PLAB): With relocation post-2030, PLAB will free up 800 hectares (five times the size of Toa Payoh) for an entirely new town, featuring housing, commercial hubs, and green corridors. Lifting airspace height restrictions will also benefit surrounding towns like Hougang and Bedok Reservoir. Its sheer size signifies a major future shake-up.
- Pearl’s Hill: Ear-marked in past plans, this rare CCR pocket near Chinatown and Outram offers open, elevated land. It will see progressive development over the next 10 years, including the first new HDB blocks in about 40 years, potentially becoming a hidden gem for those seeking a quieter hilltop vibe near the city, especially with the Greater Southern Waterfront plans.
- Marina South: A long-standing vision for a waterfront live-work-play enclave with high-density housing, Marina South’s progress has been slow. Lacking essential amenities like schools and supermarkets, it currently feels more suited for leisure than daily living. Until anchor amenities and transport nodes develop, it remains a long-term target rather than a near-term draw for homeowners.
- Bukit Timah Turf City/Keppel Golf Course/Mount Pleasant: This “high-pedigree” trio includes:
- Turf City (Bukit Timah): A 176-hectare mixed estate with public and private housing, including the first new HDB flats in Bukit Timah in almost 40 years, integrating conserved colonial structures and forested areas. Future CRL access enhances its appeal as a central brownfield opportunity.
- Keppel Golf Course: Part of the Greater Southern Waterfront, offering new housing in a prestigious, green area near the CBD and Sentosa.
- Mount Pleasant: Envisioned as a quiet, upscale residential node, likely with private or premium public housing, integrating greenery and heritage.
These redevelopments, while distant, are central and prestigious, expected to be highly contested when sites eventually go up for sale.
Should You Buy, Sell or Wait?
If you’re reading this, you must be trying to figure out the best course of action right now: is it the right time to buy or sell?
It’s difficult to give an exact answer since everyone’s situation is unique and what works for one person may not necessarily work for you.
I can bring you a wealth of on-the-ground experience and a data-driven approach to provide clarity and direction. From beginners to experienced investors, our top-down, objective approach will help you on your real estate journey.
I can help you by:
- Offering Strategic Real Estate Advice – I can help create a comprehensive plan to guide you through your property journey.
- Connecting Your Home with the Perfect Buyers – Through stunning visuals, an effective communication strategy, and an in-depth knowledge of the market, we’ll ensure your home is presented in the best possible way to fulfill your goals.
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