TLDR
A recent survey by the National University of Singapore (NUS) highlights increasing optimism among real estate industry leaders. The findings reveal a positive outlook for market growth, driven by factors such as economic recovery and favorable government policies. Industry experts express confidence in continued demand for residential and commercial properties, with a focus on sustainable development and technological advancements.
In the midst of the lively activity in the local real estate market, a recent survey shows a positive outlook as top executives from real estate companies anticipate a favorable upturn. The National University of Singapore’s Real Estate Sentiment Index (RESI) indicates that the first quarter of the year experienced an increase in both current and future sentiments, suggesting a possible recovery following a slow end to 2023. With a stable economy and positive macroeconomic indicators in the background, experts in the industry forecast a consistent growth path in the upcoming months.
The robust Singapore dollar has played a significant role in reducing inflation. In March, core inflation decreased from 3.6% to 3.1% year-on-year, while headline inflation dropped to 2.7% from February’s 3.4%.
One of the survey participants credited this positive trend to the financial stability of households and the low unemployment rate, which are expected to continue supporting demand and prices in the housing market.
The National University of Singapore (NUS) reported an impressive 8.9% increase in households’ net worth, reaching $2.80 trillion in 2023, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 2%. This aligns with the decrease in retrenchment rates in the first quarter of 2024.
The sentiment towards the local hotel and serviced apartment segment remains very positive among real estate industry leaders, followed by a relatively optimistic outlook on the suburban retail sector. However, respondents were less confident about the performance of the prime residential market.
Moreover, most respondents (73.5%) in the first quarter of 2024 survey identified a potential slowdown or decline in the global economy as the top risk that could negatively impact sentiments in the next six months. This marks a significant decrease from 90% in the previous quarter of 2023.
“A strong economic recovery is essential for the health of the property market. Concerns also exist regarding a possible oversupply of residential apartments, as the government has increased the supply of Government Land Sale (GLS) sites in recent quarters. The potential implementation of cooling measures is always a consideration,” emphasized a survey participant.
Approximately 29.4% of respondents expressed concerns about the increase in development land supply, up from 23.7% in the previous quarter.
Despite a slight decrease from the last quarter, job losses and a sluggish domestic economy maintained their position as the second biggest concern, with a worrying 55.9%. Inflation and interest rates, on the other hand, rose to 50.0% from 44.7% in 4Q2023.
Interestingly, government intervention in the market and the looming threat of a real estate price bubble were of the least concern, only registering at 11.8% and 2.9%, respectively.
Looking ahead, 22.2% of surveyed developers predict a moderate increase in unit prices for new launches in the next six months, a significant drop from 42.9% in 4Q2023. Conversely, a majority of 72.2% anticipate prices to remain stable, a stark increase from 47.6% in the previous quarter.
Only a small percentage (5.6%) foresees a decrease in unit prices.
Commenting on the situation, one respondent highlights the growing resistance of home buyers to exorbitant price points, resulting in more selective and cautious decisions. While developers may resort to delicate pricing strategies, drastic price drops are unlikely due to existing commitments to land and development costs. The overall demand and prices are expected to be supported by healthy household finances and a low unemployment rate.
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