TLDR
HDB’s old strategy of hiding Cash Over Valuation (COV) data isn’t cooling Singapore’s resale flat market anymore. Prices keep breaking records, driven by cash-rich right-sizers from the private market and sky-high private property prices making million-dollar HDBs look reasonable. Without public COV data, buyers only see final transacted prices, pushing future prices even higher. Public perception is key—if $2 million HDB deals become common, HDB’s stance may backfire. The market faces a critical test in 2025. Whether to buy, sell, or wait depends on individual circumstances. Strategic advice and a data-driven approach are crucial for making informed decisions in today’s unpredictable market.
The COV secret sauce isn’t working anymore. Record-breaking prices keep coming: $1.73 million yesterday, $1.88 million today in Bishan. That last one’s a maisonette from 1991 – practically a spring chicken among its kind, given HDB stopped building these units in 1995.
Remember 2014? When resale prices went wild, HDB played its trump card: hiding COV data. Buyers and sellers had to shake hands on price before seeing valuations. Overpay? Too bad – loans won’t cover that premium. The strategy worked beautifully then. Zero COV became standard, and prices took a nice, long nap.
Until Covid hit.
Why isn’t this old trick working now? First, meet the right-sizers. These folks just sold private properties at peak prices. They’re swimming in cash and happy to overpay for their forever HDB home. Who needs to worry about COV when you’re sitting on a private property windfall?
Private market prices aren’t helping either. That $1.4 million Henderson flat from 2022 looks almost quaint now. When private options hit $2 million, a million-dollar HDB starts making twisted sense.
Here’s the real deal: past transactions drive future prices. We see final prices but not COV amounts. Was that $800,000 flat really worth $800,000, or did someone pay $100,000 over value? Nobody knows. The next buyer just sees $800,000 and builds from there.
HDB faces a critical challenge: keeping flats under $2 million. They’ve already flagged one misleading $2 million listing (it was actually two units). But public perception is everything. If that $1.88 million Bishan unit sells, and others follow, HDB’s “unrealistic” stance might backfire spectacularly.
They pulled one rabbit from the hat with COV concealment. Time for another trick? 2025 should tell.
If you’re reading this, you must be trying to figure out the best course of action right now: is it the right time to buy or sell?
It’s difficult to give an exact answer since everyone’s situation is unique and what works for one person may not necessarily work for you.
I can bring you a wealth of on-the-ground experience and a data-driven approach to provide clarity and direction. From beginners to experienced investors, our top-down, objective approach will help you on your real estate journey.
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