NUS Real Estate Survey Reveals Growing Optimism Among Industry Leaders
TLDR A recent survey by the National University of Singapore (NUS) highlights increasing optimism among real estate industry leaders. The...
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TLDR
District 15 condos show a nuanced split between old and new developments. Freehold projects have driven much of the district’s outperformance, with stronger annualized growth compared to national averages. Newer condos generally outperform older ones in two- and three-bedder segments, offering higher $PSF growth and stronger rental demand, especially among expatriates. However, older condos remain attractive for buyers seeking larger layouts, established neighborhoods, and decent yields, particularly in compact units where lower entry prices boost returns. Leasehold age differences are less decisive, with newer leasehold units only slightly edging older ones. Ultimately, project specifics—layout, upkeep, facilities, and micro-location—matter more than age alone. For families prioritizing space, older condos can be excellent value; for investors or those seeking modern efficiency, newer projects often justify their premium. Freehold tenure remains a key driver of long-term value in District 15.
District 15 (Katong, Joo Chiat, Meyer, Marine Parade) is a favourite for coastal living and lifestyle premiums. In 2025 the choice between buying a newer condo or an older resale unit is very relevant: launches tend to be smaller but pricier, while older projects often give you more space and established neighbourhood appeal. Below I break down how new and old condos have performed across unit sizes, tenure (freehold vs 99‑year), prices and rents — and what that means if you’re buying or investing in D15 this year.
Overall picture for resale condos in D15
- D15 resale $PSF trend (2014 → 2024): rose from about $1,230 to $1,805.
- Annualised growth for D15 resale stock: ~3.9% vs ~3.3% for all non‑landed private properties across Singapore.
That tells us D15 outperformed the national private market over the last decade — but that aggregate view hides important tenure and age differences.
Leasehold (99‑yr) vs freehold performance
- 99‑year segment (D15) annualised: ~3.7%
- All leasehold non‑landed across Singapore: ~4.25%
Leasehold units in D15 lagged the broader leasehold market — suggesting the district’s strength has been driven mainly by freehold stock.
- Freehold/999‑yr segment (D15) annualised: ~4.08%
- All freehold across Singapore: ~2.97%
Freehold assets in D15 did particularly well, supporting the idea that D15’s outperformance is concentrated in freehold projects.
New vs old leasehold condos (20‑year split) Method: “New” = lease start 1994–2014 (≤20 years old); “Old” = lease start ≤1993 (>20 years). Data limited to sub‑sale/resale to avoid developer launch distortions.
- New leasehold $PSF (2014 → 2024) annualised: ~3.22%
- Old leasehold $PSF annualised: ~2.96%
Conclusion: performance between newer and older leasehold projects is very close. Newer leasehold slightly outperformed, but the difference is marginal.
Quantum (total price) differences
- Average transaction quantum shows a widening gap: new projects’ average price rose from ~US$1.93m (2014) to ~US$2.56m (2024), while older projects moved from ~US$1.31m to ~US$1.81m. That makes the dollar gap larger even if $PSF runs closer — partly because unit sizes differ.
One‑bedder (compact) summary
- $PSF: older one‑bedders actually delivered higher annualised $PSF growth (≈3.45%) than newer one‑bedders (≈1.97%) across the decade. By 2024 the $PSF gap was negligible (~$50).
- Quantum: new one‑bedders averaged ~US$1.43m in 2024 vs ~US$1.06m for older units. The quantum gap widened because newer one‑bedder units tend to be larger or are in higher‑priced projects.
- Unit sizes: older one‑bedder layouts in D15 can be surprisingly large (projects like Pebble Bay, Costa Rhu have one‑bedders >800–900 sq ft), inflating average sizes and affecting $PSF comparisons.
- Rental yields: older one‑bedder projects often show solid yields because of lower entry prices; examples like Tanjong Ria recorded yields near 3.7%.
Two‑bedder summary
- $PSF: newer two‑bedders consistently outperformed older ones (annualised ~3.67% vs ~2.89%). The $PSF gap widened from ~$60 in 2014 to around $206 in 2024.
- Quantum: new two‑bedders rose ~44.7% (2014→2024) while old ones rose ~29.2%. That’s a meaningful outperformance for newer two‑bedders.
- Sizes and volumes: newer two‑bedders sometimes have larger average sizes (due to specific projects) and recorded higher transaction volumes in many years.
- Project note: some older projects (Mandarin Gardens, Casuarina Cove) still trade in similar price bands as new launches — so project specifics matter more than age alone.
Three‑bedder (vs 4‑room HDB equivalent) summary
- $PSF: new three‑bedders outpaced old ones (annualised ~3.64% vs ~3.17%). By 2024 the $PSF gap expanded meaningfully.
- Quantum: new three‑bedders surged ~53% over the decade, older ones ~38%. The dollar gap widened substantially (hundreds of thousands).
- Size: older three‑bedder units are often bigger on average, but newer units still commanded higher $PSF and stronger price growth.
- Rental: newer three‑bedders generally posted respectable yields (many above 3%), and several newer projects produced stronger rental performance than older peers.
Four‑bedder and larger
- $PSF: newer four‑bedders showed stronger growth than older ones (annualised ~2.76% vs ~1.28% across the available years).
- Quantum: newer four‑bedders increased in total price more than older ones, but transaction volumes are low and results volatile — treat these with caution.
- Size: older large units are frequently much bigger, which can push quantum even if $PSF is lower.
Project‑level nuance: age isn’t destiny Examining individual projects shows mixed outcomes:
- Some newer projects (Silversea, Dunman View, Cote D’Azur) recorded strong growth and solid rental demand.
- Some older projects (Mandarin Gardens, Laguna Park, Casuarina Cove) matched or beat newer project performance in certain bands.
- Outliers exist: for example, Pebble Bay and Costa Rhu have unusually large one/two‑bedder floor plans, skewing average sizes and price comparisons.
Rental yields snapshot (selected examples)
- One‑bedder / two‑bedder yields: older projects often deliver decent yields because of lower entry prices. Tanjong Ria and Mandarin Gardens showed yields around 3.7–3.8% for compact units.
- Three‑bedder yields: many newer projects (Legenda, Sanctuary Green, Villa Marina) returned ~3%–3.6%, competitive with older developments.
- Four‑bedder yields: naturally lower (often sub‑3.5%) given higher capital outlays; few landlords operate in this segment.
Tenure (freehold vs 99‑yr) takeaways
- District‑level: freehold stock drove much of D15’s outperformance. Freehold assets showed stronger annualised growth versus freehold averages nationwide.
- Project/unit level: within leasehold condos, the age gap wasn’t decisive — newer leasehold properties edged older ones but the difference was modest. Lease decay has not yet strongly penalised 99‑year units in D15 within the 10‑year window analysed.
So what should a buyer consider?
- If you prioritise space and an established neighbourhood feel — older condos can be excellent value. They often offer larger layouts and reasonable rental demand, especially in D15 where location is prized.
- If you prioritise modern finishes, efficiency and rental appeal to expatriates — newer projects often command a premium and have stronger $PSF growth and rental performance for mid‑to‑larger units.
- Freehold matters in D15 — freehold projects have outperformed and are an important part of the district’s premium.
- Don’t rely on age alone — project specifics (unit size, orientation, upkeep, facilities, and micro‑location) often outweigh whether a development is “old” or “new.”
- For investors, yields vary: compact older units can produce good gross yields; three‑bedder newer projects often balance capital growth and rental demand.
Bottom line
- Newer condos in D15 generally outperformed older ones across most unit types over the last decade, particularly in two‑ and three‑bedder bands.
- Older condos still hold definite value for buyers seeking space and can sometimes match or beat newer projects at the project level.
- Freehold stock is a key driver of D15’s strong returns, but leasehold units have not been badly punished yet — at least across the 10‑year window.
- Always prioritise the specific unit and project over broad age assumptions: layout, size, maintenance, view and location drive outcomes more than the build year alone.
If you want, I can:
- Run a side‑by‑side comparison for specific projects or unit types you’re considering (price, $PSF, size, lease balance, likely rent and yield).
- Model likely appreciation scenarios or cashflow comparisons for buy‑to‑let vs owner‑occupier paths.
Tell me which projects or units you want compared and I’ll prepare a focused briefing.
Should You Buy, Sell or Wait?
If you’re reading this, you must be trying to figure out the best course of action right now: is it the right time to buy or sell?
It’s difficult to give an exact answer since everyone’s situation is unique and what works for one person may not necessarily work for you.
I can bring you a wealth of on-the-ground experience and a data-driven approach to provide clarity and direction. From beginners to experienced investors, our top-down, objective approach will help you on your real estate journey.
I can help you by:
- Offering Strategic Real Estate Advice – I can help create a comprehensive plan to guide you through your property journey.
- Connecting Your Home with the Perfect Buyers – Through stunning visuals, an effective communication strategy, and an in-depth knowledge of the market, we’ll ensure your home is presented in the best possible way to fulfill your goals.
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